It's Derby Day

Todays Horse racing preview

18+ BeGambleAware

It’s been a great start to July, but saying it was badly needed is an understatement. It’s frustrating when the selections are shortening in price and running well without winning, but the silver lining is that at least you’re on form. It doesn’t make it any easier at the time, but thankfully the tide has turned and we’ve started to hit some form.

It’s Derby Day but no like we know it, with the Oaks thrown in for good measure. My first selection comes in the 3:00 and I’m giving one last chance to JOHNNY DRAMA. I was a fan of his when he was trained in Ireland and I had big hopes for him as a top level handicapper/Group 3 horse when he joined Andrew Balding. Unfortunately, like many things in this game, he hasn’t progressed as I’d hoped he might. He has run two respectable races, both and York, but he bombed out on his British debut at Ascot and again at Newbury. Nothing went right for him last time out, again at Ascot, and I’m willing to give him another chance. He sports a first-time tongue tie, I think he’ll appreciate the rain softened ground and Silvestre de Sousa rides him for just the third time. The handicapper clearly thinks he has been underperforming as, despite showing little in four of his six British runs, he races off a mark of 97, having first-raced off a mark of 98 and reaching a high of 99. Balding’s horses have been running well and how this horse handles the track will have to be taken on trust, but at 14/1 he’s a big enough price to take a shot.

1pt EW – JOHNNY DRAMA – 14/1 – 3.00 Epsom

I think LOVE is well clear of her rivals in the Oaks and I will be very, very surprised if she runs to form and doesn’t win. Her pedigree is all stamina and she’s open to untold improvement now stepped-up to 1m 4f. Frankly Darling was visually impressive at Ascot, despite running free in the early stages and she should finish clear of the rest. However, I struggle to see how she beats Love who looks NAP material.

5pts WIN – LOVE – 5/4 – 3.40 Epsom

He broke out hearts at Ascot, nabbing First Receiver on the line but all things considered, I think RUSSIAN EMPEROR will go close in the Derby. He improved no-end from his seasonal reappearance to his Ascot run and he’s certain to improve for the step-up to 1m 4f. He looked to be crying out for it at Leopardstown and needed every yard of 10f to get up at Ascot, so I’ve no doubt in my mind that he’ll be a better horse over this trip. He seems very straightforward and balanced, which is exactly the type of horse you need at Epsom and he’s drawn in six which is another positive. This is his third run in under a month and just 17 days after Ascot, so that is a slight concern, but I’m sure Aidan O’Brien has left something to work on and I’m hoping he has worked back from this race. English King has a poor draw in stall one and, although impressive, had the race set up for him at Lingfield so he has it to prove for me. Kameko might be the most talented horse in the race, but he’s drawn very wide and needs to prove he’ll stay. Personally, I don’t think he will. Mogul is the apparent choice of Ryan Moore, but he’s drawn in stall two which isn’t much better than stall one. All in all, especially at the prices, Russian Emperor is the bet but it’s a wide-open renewal.

1pt WIN – RUSSIAN EMPEROR – 13/2 – 4.55 Epsom