The Flat Season Begins

It’s officially the start of the flat season and and we have the sole meeting at Nass to get our teeth into.

It’s often very difficult to assess these horses at this stage of the season with very little form on offer, but this is a key point in the season for making use of a tracker and I would recommend keeping one if you don’t already do so. A lot of these horses will be making their debuts so look out for horses who look to have potential for next time out. We will help you along the way and advise any horses who are worthy of monitoring for next time out.

It’s interesting to see derby favorite Sir Dragonet lining up today having finished only a length away at Epsom last summer and Aiden O’Brien has a host of other horses on today’s card. All of which will be likely to go off near the head of the market.

Although O’Brien is definitely the one to follow in this sphere having had multiple listed winners throughout the years. It’s worth noting that most of his horses improve for a run. He had in fact a fairly slow start to last seasons flat campaign, so we will see if we can find you some value in today’s card.

14.00

We get underway with a 5f race for 2year old newcomers and all we really have to go off here is the breeding. Lipizzaner is likely to go off favorite for the afore mentioned O’Brien yard. Related to a couple of decent performers in Australia and bought by Smith/Magnier & Tabor for $650,000 as a yearling, it would have an obvious chance in this field. Poetic Flare is likely to be the main competition in the market with Manning taking the reigns of the two Bolger horses in the field. It’s a race that’s better off watched than a betting proposition, but with very little to go on we would side with LIPPIZANER.

14.30

21 runners to try and pick from with less than half of the field having racecourse form. The pick of the form is between Grizzly and Knight of Malta who both had encouraging debut runs at the Curragh and here respectively. Grizzly has since been gelded and is bound to come on for that run. Knight of Malta, likewise should strip fitter for this seasonal debut and is out of an Oaks winner and related to a derby winner. The breeding would suggest that this could be a horse to follow this season although there is a wide draw to overcome to win today. Out of the newcomers the Dermot Weld trained Eshtiya looks like an interesting recruit being related to Ascot Gold Cup winners Enzeli and Estimate and could well win this on debut. Another difficult race to predict but on form alone we will side with Knight of Malta and a close eye on the debutant Eshtiya

15.00

A competitive looking handicap where cases can be made for half of the field. Dark Vader is likely to go off favorite and would have a favorites chance with a few recent victories at Dundalk and has moderate form on the turf. However the one that I’m keen on the most is TRESORIER, who was a shade unlucky at Leopardstown in October over 7 furlongs. I can’t see the drop in trip proving a problem and without running into traffic as it did then, I can see it going close today. Mokhalad could prove best of the rest.

330

If will be interesting to see how Knight of Malta races in the 230 as the winner of his only race to date will go off favorite for this. Hong Kong is another O’Brien horse who having won here, went in to compete in a grade 3 at Newmarket and wasn’t disgraced having led for most of the way. He would have an obvious chance here back at this level. I particularly liked the run of ELUSIVE KING last time out who got its nose in front in a big field maiden here at Nass. He had previously run in the same race behind Knight of Malta, and won by Hong Kong. That race was over 6f and it looked as though this extra furlong would suit. A mark of 85 seems manageable and should run a good race at a fair price (10/1)

16.00

It would be difficult to oppose Sir Dragonet here on his return. The Chester Vase winner went on to compete in the derby, as favorite and the St Leger and that kind of form would be more than enough to land this if brushing away the cobwebs in his seasonal reappearance. From a betting prospective I am going to take a chance that Sir Dragonet will need the run and therefore I shall be siding with BROGUE. A well bred colt out of the great Frankel who won at cork on debut, but hasn’t been seen since. He looks sure to run a big race and will make the most of any imperfections with the favourite.

430

EVEN SO (nap) looks to be a warm order for Ger Lyons here. She bolted up last time at Gowran Park having been held behind Blissful previously. She holds some fancy entries this year and looks a progressive type with leading jockey favourite Colin Keane likely to get the best out of her.

500

Another hot favourite from the O’Brien yard to oppose in Russian Emperor who finished well into 3rd on his debut and has entries in the Irish Guineas and derby. The 230 could be key again in assessing the potential of Emiyn who is bred similarly to Eshtiya. If that horse runs well it may be wise to have a gamble on emiyn progressing from a close up 4th on debut to take this at a more attractive price. Laugh Cutra would be another who is likely to be involved for Ger Lyons and a host of newcomers that include Lobo Rojo and Legal Reform.

Good luck if you follow.

Selections-

14.00- Lipizzaner 9/4

14.30- Knight of Malta 2/1

15.00- Tresorier 8/1

1530- Elusive King 10/1 ew

1600- Brogue 6/1

1630- Even so 6/5 nap

1700- Emiyn 9/2