Stayers Hurdle Day

Racing preview

Two down, two to go. Bob Olinger got us off to a flier in the opener, winning in the manner a ‘God-given certainty should’. I’m surprised they didn’t ask Rachael Blackmore for her passport before she got on him – he’s devastatingly good.

I was delighted with Fiddlerontheroof in the old RSA Chase, although he gave me a scare when threatening to win the race at the last. That would have been bittersweet. Just like Eldorado Allen in the Arkle, it pays to be with the horses who are ridden to finish in the best possible position behind these short-priced favourites, rather than win the race. At 12/1 without Monkfish, and 6/1 without Monkfish and The Big Breakaway, he ensured we were more than freerolling for the rest of the day.

Onto today which looks much tougher on paper.

1:20 Cheltenham – Marsh Chase

Envoi Allen is as short as 4/9 here and deservingly so. He’s unbeaten in 11 races and has two Cheltenham Festival wins to his name. He’s more than likely going to extend both of those records here, but he’s yet to blow me away over fences and I’d rather fire a couple of each-way bullets and focus mainly on the without Envoi Allen market.

I’ve never warmed to Chantry House who looked to run his race in last year’s Supreme but was still beaten over 12 lengths. He won a match race on his chasing debut at Ascot and jumped like a goat when beaten at Cheltenham next time out. He was OK the last day, but again, that was a relative match race and I think his odds are based more on price than the substance of his form. I much prefer Shan Blue to him, but I genuinely think the Irish novices are streets ahead of their British counterparts.

Asterion Forlonge is talented but backing him should come with a health-warning and I don’t think he’ll get away with his jumping errors around here. That leaves three, CHATHAM STREET LAD, Blackbow and Darver Star.

I’ve watched the Caspian Caviar back about 10 times now as Annie Mc was in it, and it’s hard not to be more and more impressed with Chatham Street Lad each time I watch it. He bolted up. To win any competitive handicap off 141 in the manner he did requires a serious engine, and he certainly has one. He was ridden too close to the pace over a trip short of his best and on bottomless ground the last day, but it still wasn’t a bad run. He’s battle-hardened, is trained by a genius, has winning course and distance form and he’ll absolutely love the ground. At 12/1 each-way, or around 4/1 (9/2 Bet Victor) in the w/o Envoi Allen market, he represents serious value against the field in my opinion.

Of the other two, I think they’re both over-priced. Darver Star has form over hurdles with Honeysuckle, and I think Blackbow has been crying out for this trip on better ground. He jumps better than the latter and is less exposed, which is why I’m advising a saver on him.

1.5pts each-way – Chatham Street Lad – 12/1

0.5pt each-way – Blackbow – 40/1

4pts win – Chatham Street Lad w/o Envoi Allen – 4/1

0.5pt each-way – Blackbow w/o Envoi Allen – 14/1

1:55 Cheltenham – The Pertemps

I’m really surprised that COME ON TEDDY is as big as 10/1 here. He’s only 7lb higher than when giving On The Blind Side a five-length beating over course and distance, and has somehow been left on the same mark that he raced off when third to Imperial Alcazar last time out. Nothing went right for him that day. The pace of the race didn’t suit him, and it turned into a relative sprint. He’s sure to get a strong pace to aim at here, which will bring him stamina into play. He looks extremely well handicapped in my opinion. I’d also give a chance to Mrs Milner whose form ties in with Come On Teddy. She was second to On The Blind Side on the Old Course and can run well if overcoming her fall at the Dublin Racing Festival.

2.5pts each-way – Come On Teddy – 10/1

1pt each-way – Mrs Milner – 12/

2:30 Cheltenham – The Ryanair Chase

This is the race of the week for me. It’s an absolute cracker. It’s also extremely competitive and I give a chance to most of the runners. However, having gone through it with a fine-tooth comb, it’s hard to oppose MIN. He’s the defending champion and saw off Saint Calvados and A Plus Tard in last year’s renewal. He put in an uncharacteristic poor run at Leopardstown last time, but he didn’t look right there on what was very tacky ground. If you have time, have a look back at his performance in the 2019 Melling Chase which was on ground like today’s. He was awesome. That’s the level the other runners must improve to, and I’m not sure there’s a horse in this field that can match a performance like that. That being said, he was pulled up last time out and has to bounce back, but that performance is the reason he’s 9/2 and not 9/4, so I’m more than happy to forgive him.

Outside of Min, I think Samcro will run well, although he was as big as 14/1 yesterday which makes more appeal than his current 9/1. I don’t think he’s good enough to beat Min, but he might be worth a saver.

4pts win – Min – 9/2

3:05 Cheltenham – Stayers’ Hurdle

No Thyme Hill but this is a still a vintage renewal of the Stayers. Paisley Park deserves to be favourite, but this is a better renewal than the two renewals he won, and I’m happy to oppose him. I really like BEACON EDGE here. He’s a fast-improving sort who ran Honeysuckle close in the Hatton’s Grace, just behind last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle second, Ronald Pump. He suffered a bout of colic which was the reason given for his poor performance behind Bachasson next time out, but he bounced back with a gritty defeat of Fury Road in the Boyne Hurdle. He was behind that runner jumping the last that day, but outbattled him and was going away at the finish. Fury Road has Cheltenham Festival form, but there’s no way he should be more than half the price of Beacon Edge who is around 16/1. The ground is a question mark, as is the course, but that’s all in his price and he’s worth chancing.

Of the main protagonists, I think Sire Du Berlais is drifting to a nice price. The time of last year’s Pertemps win was better than the time recorded by Lisnagar Oscar in this race, and I he looks nailed on to run well again.

2pts each-way – Beacon Edge – 16/1

1pt win – Sire Du Berlais – 6/1

3:40 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Plate

This looks impossible on paper. The Shunter is well-handicapped and is chasing a £100k bonus for a very-shrewd outfit. He had a very tough race the last day though, and it would be some performance to back that up by winning this. The one I like is SULLY DOC AA for JP McManus. He looks potentially well-treated off 137 and looks like a plot job for this race. He won well at Ascot and is only 2lb higher than when finishing third to Clondaw Castle on good ground at Newbury, who has subsequently won again since and is now rated 9lb higher. He should go well.

2pts each-way – Sully Doc Aa – 12/1

4:15 Cheltenham – Mares’ Novice Hurdle

This is a competitive renewal and the Irish mares look to have it sewn up. I like HOOK UP who will improve for the better ground and whose form behind Appreciate It stands out like a sore thumb in the context of this race. She made a bad mistake at the last when beaten by Royal Kahala and I think she could be the best of them in this race.

3pts win – Hook Up – 7/1