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It’s been fair to say its been a year to forget, but on the plus side, we can feel privileged to have some high class racing to look forward to over the festive period. The feature race of the day is the King George VI, where we witness two of Paul Nicholls’ stable stars going head to head, and we get to see the impressive Epatante build on her ever-growing reputation in the Christmas Hurdle. Our resident tipster, ‘The Judge’ has picked out his fancies for the day as we begin our new adventure with Superhero Bets. We are always looking for value in races and we aren’t here to tip up short priced favourites. we hope to teach you how to find value horses in the fields and turn over consistent profits with our resident tipsters via direct inside information.
1:15 Kempton:
Alnadam thoroughly deserves his place at the head of the market after a dominating display at Sandown last time out. He jumped and stayed very well that day and seemed to relish the stiff finish, pulling away to win by over six lengths. He had Killer Clown a further two lengths back in third, and while Emma Lavelle’s gelding was well-beaten in the end, he travelled well enough throughout to suggest a bigger test of speed would suit him better. He gets that here, as well as a pull in the weights from the favourite, who must prove he’s as effective on a speed track. At 11/4 and 7/1 respectively, the gap in prices is too big for me and I had them much closer together. With that in mind, it’s worth backing KILLER CLOWN to reverse the form with the Skelton runner.
Hold The Note is a cliff horse for many, and he would have a chance if returning to the form that saw him finish third in the Novices’ Handicap at the Festival. He’s back to his favoured trip now, but I’m not convinced he’s as good as some judges think he is and it’s possible that his runs over three miles have either bottomed him out or made him sour.
The other horse of interest in the race is chasing debutante, GALAHAD QUEST for Nick Williams. On paper, this looks like a tough assignment for a horse making his first start over fences. However, he has always looked like the type to flourish as a chaser and his initial hurdles form with Buzz and Night Edition looks useful. He’s related to Martin Pipe’s staying chaser, Eudipe, who was second in a Scottish National and third in a Hennessy, so there’s plenty of confidence to be taken from his breeding. At 20/1, he too looks over-priced to me and is worth a play.
1pt EW – KILLER CLOWN (7/1) & GALAHAD QUEST (20/1)
1.50 Kempton
This is a proper Grade One and you can make a case for all bar one of the runners. Shan Blue has been impressive in his two starts over fences, winning by wide margins on both occasions, and his jumping fluency makes him the right favourite. However, while the manner of his victories has been faultless, there’s a slight question over the true substance of the form, especially coming into a Grade one, and I think he’s worth taking on at 15/8 or 7/4.
The Big Breakaway has a big reputation, but he was done for speed when beaten at Exeter last time out. The return to three miles will suit him and he has his chance, but he’d prefer the ground much softer than the current good to soft description and there doesn’t look to be much rain forecast.
IF THE CAP FITS was the best of these over hurdles, and by some way. He was impressive when beating Fiddlerontheroof, a stablemate of The Big Breakaway, at Ffos Las on his first start over fences. He was disappointing when getting weight and a beating from Pym at Sandown in a muddling three-runner race, but his trainer Harry Fry has since conceded that he’s a better horse when fresh. He’s intentionally wrapped him in cotton wool since Sandown with this race in mind, and the cheek-pieces are back on to sharpen him up. At 4/1, he’s far too big in my opinion and I’m very happy to side with him on ground which will suit him.
2.5pts WIN – IF THE CAP FITS – 4/1
3.00 Kempton
This is a fascinating renewal of the King George VI Chase, with several form angles and variables to consider. Clan Des Obeaux is the right favourite and it’s hard to forget how impressive he was in last year’s renewal. He ran ok in the Gold Cup considering Cheltenham isn’t a track that suits him, and his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase was a cracking effort, but it does pose a question of how much it took out of him.
CYRNAME is an equine version of Mick Jagger and proved his doubters wrong by winning over three miles last time out. He was sent off 5/4F in this race last year, but completely bombed out and was beaten when falling at Ascot on his next start. He looked as good as he ever did at Wetherby when last seen, and in truth, he looks a touch big at 11/4.
Santini will surely find this test too quick for him, and it’s hard to see him winning unless it turns into a speed duel up front. He probably won’t get his favoured soft ground either, so there are enough reasons to oppose him at 6/1, for all he’s a talented horse.
LOSTINTRANSLATION is a difficult horse to work out. He looked to have a huge chance in this race last year, but completely blew out and was reported to have breathing problems which have since been fixed. He ran a stormer in the Gold Cup, only to be outstayed by two stout stayers in Al Boum Photo and Santini. His reappearance in the Betfair Chase was bemusing, but the Tizzard’s weren’t exactly banging in winners at the time and the run looked too bad to be true. The ground was bottomless, and not getting into a battle after the last might be a blessing in disguise. Tizzard’s runners are in better form now, the ground will be perfect for him and at 15/2, there’s enough juice in the price to take a chance on him bouncing back to form.
Of the others, I really like Real Steel who travelled like a dream in the Gold Cup for a long way. A race like this is sure to suit him, but I’m not sure he’s quite up to his level, for all that he’s a proper Grade Two horse. Saint Calvados, Waiting Patiently and Frodon add another dimension to this already fascinating contest, and they too have their chances. It’s going to be a cracker.
2pts WIN – CYRNAME (11/4), 1pt EW – LOSTINTRANSLATION (15/2)
Just a quick note on three at Wetherby, all trained by Philip Kirby. There’s probably nothing in it, but they’re interesting, nonetheless. Kangaroo Valley (12.53) was bought out of Aidan O’Brien’s yard by Adam McCormack, who is a big supporter of the game and likes a bet. He was bought by new owners and had three quick enough runs in handicaps in October and November. He has dropped 7lbs in the handicap as a result, and gets blinkers put on for the first time.
The second is Arthur Mac (2.40) who is owned by McCormack and showed a good level of form last year. He has been below par for Philip Kirby but has dropped to an attractive mark of 126 and looks well-treated if finding his old form.
Lastly, Suggestion (3.13) is a course and distance winner off 120 and runs off 105 here with Colm McCormack taking off an additional 3lbs. He has been out of form, but he’s well handicapped and is interesting, especially if money comes.
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