The Grand National Meeting

Day 1 Preview

And just like that, Aintree is upon us. It can be a funny meeting from a punting perspective; it’s close to the end of the season, thus a lot of the runners will be having their final run, some of which will be over the top plus, you have the added headache of siding with Cheltenham form over fresh horses and vice versa.

The opening race of the meeting is the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase and I think it’s fair to say it’s not the strongest Grade 1 of all time. The market is headed by Hitman, who has a big reputation but has ultimately come up short on the two occasions he was really tested. He may well prove to be the best of these, but I’m yet to be convinced and I think he’s worth taking on. Fusil Raffles ran well in the Marsh at Cheltenham, but the time of that was slow and whether he’s durable enough to run to a similar level here is debatable.

The horse I’m siding with is THE SHUNTER who rapidly improving and won at Cheltenham in the style of a horse who hasn’t reached his ceiling. He’s stepping up in class, although off a mark of 153 he doesn’t really have an option. He has been bought by JP McManus and will wear his colours in this, which doesn’t have a positive or negative bearing on his chance, but it is encouraging to learn he has changed hands for what I assume is a decent sum of money, despite being on a career high mark. The funny thing with The Shunter is that he didn’t jump great at Cheltenham, yet he still absolutely dotted up, less than two weeks after a gruelling race at Kelso. He might be over the top after a very busy season, but the fact connections run here suggests all is well at home.

4pts WIN – THE SHUNTER – 4/1 PP – 1:45 Aintree

The second bet of the day comes in the third race, where REAL STEEL strikes me as decent value around 14/1. The exploits of Stormy Ireland have shown how difficult and unlikely it is to improve a horse out of Willie Mullins’, even if you’ve been Champion Trainer in Britain on multiple occasions. However, if Paul Nicholls can get Real Steel close to the level that Mullins had him in, he has a massive chance here. His 14-length trouncing of Secret Investor and Footpad in a brace of Grade 2s, added to his run in last year’s Gold Cup are pieces of form which would suggest 14/1 is at least double the price he should be. He has to improve on what he has shown this season, but he comes here fresh and the flat track and decent ground should suit. Those ahead of him in the market have questions to answer, especially Clan Des Obeaux who has looked vulnerable since last year’s Gold Cup where he finished behind our selection. At 14/1, three places, Real Steel is a cracking bet.

2.5pts EW – REAL STEEL – 14/1 – 2:50 Aintree

The feature of the day is the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle which, again, doesn’t look the strongest of races for the grade. Jason The Militant has been backed into favouritism and he has as good a chance as any, however, at around 3/1 he doesn’t appeal from a betting perspective, especially as he’s unproven on ground as good as this. Abacadabras isn’t the strongest of finishers but does have a high cruising speed which may stand to him if they go quick. On the contrary, there are some good stayers in here which he might be vulnerable to late on. He may well look the winner at some stage, but I would have some concerns about him getting the trip. Brewinupastorm and MCFABULOUS meet again after the former came out on top at Fontwell last time. However, McFabulous’ worst runs have come on undulating tracks and he was giving the winner 6lbs on that occasion. He has some strong form and has won at this track in the past. He’s weak in the market at around 6/1 currently, but that looks too big to me.

2.5pts EW – MCFABULOUS – 6/1 – 3:25 Aintree

The last bet of the day is MOON OVER GERMANY who is bidding for back-to-back wins in this race. He races off a 12lb higher mark here, but the ultra-talented Jordan Gainford takes off a valuable 7lb so he theoretically races off just 5lb higher than when trouncing the field in 2019. This looks as if it’s been the plan for some time, and while he enjoys soft ground, good to soft will be fine for him. He was 14/1 when the prices first went up, but at around 8/1 he still represents value.

2.5pts EW – MOON OVER GERMANY – 8/1 – 4:40 Aintree