Champion Chase Day

Cheltenham Festival Preview

Who knew the key to finding Cheltenham Festival winners could be condensed to just two words? Yet, ‘Festival form’ was never more relative than it was on Tuesday. Six of the seven winners had run well at The Festival in the past, while we won’t be too harsh on the winner of the Boodles who wouldn’t have been eligible for any races last season. Black Tears and Galvin ensured our day turned into a profitable one, having been unlucky in the first half of the card.

1:20 Cheltenham – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Today’s results hinted that the Irish novice hurdlers are potentially clear of their British counterparts which has seen BOB OLINGER shorten significantly in the market. Some of the value has been taken out of his price, so he’s not as strong a bet as he once was, but he still looks rock-solid and it’s hard to see past him. While there are Grade One winners in this race, including himself, I think his run behind Ferny Hollow, who accounted for Appreciate It in last year’s Champion Bumper, is the best form in the race. That was over an unsuitable two miles, and he relished the step-up in trip when beating Blue Lord in the Lawlor’s of Naas. Gaillard du Mesnil was impressive at the Dublin Racing Festival, but I’m not sure this small field will suit him as he can be keen in his races. Bravemansgame was an impressive winner of the Challow, but how good that form is in the context of the Irish runners remains to be seen. One who I can see outrunning his odds is Joseph O’Brien’s Keskonrisk. He finished third to Appreciate It at Christmas and shaped as if he was crying out for a stiffer test. He didn’t run at the Dublin Racing Festival as the ground was too soft, so he’s sure to appreciate the drying conditions.

3pts WIN – BOB OLINGER – 6/4

1.5pt EW – KESKONRISK w/o Bob Olinger – 9/1

1:55 Cheltenham – Festival Novices’ Chase

It’s very difficult to look beyond Monkfish here who is already a Festival winner and looks an even better horse over fences. In terms of finishing second to him, the value might lie with FIDDLERONTHEROOF who is 12/1 with Bet Victor who bet each-way ¼, two places. The Big Breakaway is the apparent first string of the Tizzard yard, but of the two, I think Fiddlerontheroof is over-priced. He was sent off just 6/1 to win last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the same price as Shishkin, which tells you how highly rated he was. He ran okay on his chasing debut, and got off the mark at the second time of asking at Exeter, with Sporting John in behind him. On the face of it, he was disappointing when finishing second on his next two starts, but shaped well when second to Next Destination on his most recent start. I think it’s fair to say that he’s not the most resolute in a finish. That might be related to his wind, which is why connections are trying a tongue tie on him here. I expect Monkfish to be clear coming to the last, but I also think there’s every chance that this lad will chase him home. The Big Breakaway is a horse who wouldn’t be in love with quick ground, nor is Eklat de Rire whose trainer confirmed as much in recent post-race quote. Dickie Diver is very fragile, and Sporting John can throw in the odd stinker. With all that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me for the ‘rag’ of the field to run well.

1.5pt EW – FIDDLERONTHEROOF w/o Monkfish – 12/1 Bet Victor

1pt WIN – FIDDLERONTHEROOF w/o Monkfish & The Big Breakaway – 6/1 Bet365

2:30 Cheltenham – The Coral Cup

This is usually the most competitive race of The Festival and this year’s renewal is no different. My two against the field are THOMAS DARBY and BOTOX HAS. The former is the class horse in the race and, as a result, carries top weight. He was second in the 2019 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before his failed attempt at a chasing career saw him revert to hurdles last season. He has run with credit in graded races since, and I’m confident the application of cheek-pieces, better ground, and a fast-run 2m 5f will see this horse put in a career-best effort.

The latter runs well at this track and looks potentially well-treated off 142. I think the step-up in trip is exactly what he needs, and his form with the likes of Allmankind and Langer Dan doesn’t look too bad.

2.5pts EW – THOMAS DARBY – 12/1 – 7 Places 1/5

1.25pts EW – BOTOX HAS – 14/1 – 6 Places ¼

3:05 Cheltenham – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Another Grade One, another short-priced, Willie Mullins-trained favourite in Chacun Pour Soi who has looked awesome on his last two starts. However, there are enough reasons to take him on at odds-on, for all that I’ve no doubt he’s the most talented horse in the race. He has done most of his winning at Leopardstown and has yet to run at Cheltenham which is a slight concern. He is also encountering the best ground he has run on and he also has to prove he’s a horse that can travel. The two that interest me from an each-way perspective are ROUGE VIF and NOTEBOOK. The former is a course and distance winner of a handicap off 156 which is no mean feat. The key to this horse is decent ground, which he had on that occasion, and it looks like he’s going to get that here. He beat Nube Negra on good-to-soft ground in last year’s Kingmaker and the only time he has run on similar ground since then was when winning here in October. At 25/1, he’s hugely over-priced, especially in comparison to Nube Negra who is as short as 8/1.

Notebook is more of a risky proposition in that he completely boiled over when sent off 5/2 favourite for last year’s Arkle. However, there were some mitigating factors which makes that run easy to forgive. He was very keen down to post, sweated profusely once he got down to the start and ran well below form. That might have been the crowd and the occasion, or it might have been the travelling over. We’ll know more before they jump off tomorrow, but on bare form there’s no way he should be as big as 40/1.

If Chacun runs to form, they’re all playing for second which is why it’s worth playing both selections in the w/o market too.

1pt EW – ROUGE VIF – 25/1 and 12/1 w/o Chacun

1pt EW – NOTEBOOK – 40/1 and 18/1 w/o Chacun

3:40 Cheltenham – X-Country Chase

This is a race with more questions than answers. Easysland was a fantastic winner of this race last season, but he was disappointing over course and distance on good ground in November. Tiger Roll will be suited by the ground, but he hasn’t looked the same horse since winning the 2019 Grand National and you’d be taking a leap of faith by backing him. He might well bounce back, but he’s certainly not in the same form coming into this as he was last year. The likes of Alpha Des Obeaux and Balko Des Flos would have good chances if returning to form, particularly the latter who was a winner of the 2018 Ryanair but again, that’s a huge unknown. One horse who can outrun his odds is HOGAN’S HEIGHT who bolted up in the 2019 Grand Sefton over the Grand National fences and looks the type to improve for this test. He has reportedly taken to the obstacles “like a duck to water” and he is worth a small each-way at 25/1.

1pt EW – HOGAN’S HEIGHT – 25/1

4:15 Cheltenham – Grand Annual

There are any number of potential winners in this, headed by Embittered and Chosen Mate whose prices have contracted significantly in the past few days. They were both of interest at double figure odds, but they don’t represent value at 5/1 and 7/1 respectively. At the current prices, the bet in the race is DUC DE GENIEVRES who returns to the scene of his 2019 Arkle win. Now trained by Paul Nicholls, the dashing grey runs in a handicap for the first time having competed at the highest level. He hasn’t been running badly, and Nicholls seems to think the drying ground is a massive plus, which is the opposite of what Willie Mullins thought when he had him. At 33/1 six places, he looks too big.

1pt EW – DUC DE GENIEVRES – 33/1 6 places 1/5